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As you surely know, Italy is suffering a dramatic spreading of the coronavirus.

In just 3 weeks from the beginning of the outbreak, the virus has reached more than 10.000 infected people.

From our data, about 10% of patients require ICU (Intensive Care Unit) or sub ICU assistance and about 5% of patients die.

We are now in the tragic situation that the most efficient health system of the richest area of the country (Lombardy) is almost at its full capacity and will soon be difficult to assist more people with Covid-19.

This is the reason why an almost complete lockdown of the country has been ordered: to slow down and hopefully stop the contagion as soon as possible.

The virus is spreading at maximum speed, doubling the number of infected people in just 2,4 days[1].

As it emerges without a doubt from the data available, all the European countries are in fact experiencing the same rate of contagion speed and that they are just a few days behind on where it is Italy now [2].

The beginning of the outbreak had the exact same number of infections in China, Italy, and other countries. The difference is that China strongly and quickly locked down Wuhan and all of the Hubei region 8 days before Italy [3].

Just 8 days of delay for the Italy lockdown will result in an enormous increase in the number of total deaths in Italy with respect to China.

This exact same initial dynamic in the number of new cases can also be observed in every country outbreak.

It’s hard for non-specialists to intuitively grasp the way an exponential rate increase can get out of control.

So it’s very difficult to realize the tragic consequences that an exponential growth can have in a contagion like this one.

As a scientist, you surely do understand it. You do also understand that, as long as the rate of increase is exponential, no linear solution to contrast it will work (I.e. increasing x times the number of ICU machines, etc.)

Similarly, just imposing a limitation on people from staying together in large groups is not a sufficient solution.

This is an appeal to you, as a member of the scientific community, to urge your government to act now for actively stopping the virus!

In most EU countries you have enough time to make a lockdown similar to China or South Korea to quickly slow down and stop the contagion with much less effort and cost of what is now needed in Italy.

If Italy had strongly acted just 10 days ago, and that is more or less where you are now, there would have been much fewer deaths and economic tumble.

South Korea and China should be taken as the example to follow to stop this epidemic.

There is no other way.

So please, make your best effort to urge your government to act now! Time is our common enemy as the virus is very fast and really lethal.

Every minute is exceptionally important as it means saving lives. Don’t waste it!

Take care.

*

Link to the original document (Sources and signatures updated daily)

*

[1] https://cattiviscienziati.com/2020/03/02/esponenziale/ (italian version)

https://www.newswise.com/articles/considerations-about-current-evolution-of-sars-ncov-2-epidemic-in-italy (English version)

[2] Time lag of outbreak between EU countries (thanks to Andrea D’Aquino and Ilaria Maccari) https://www.facebook.com/100001749488972/posts/2699658956769061/?d=n
https://www.facebook.com/groups/PhysicistsAgainstSARSCoV2/permalink/815370242288237/

[3] The time lag of the outbreak Italy vs China (thanks to Federico Ricci Tersenghi)
https://www.facebook.com/531088558/posts/10158280150883559/?d=n

[4] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30522-5/fulltext

[5] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf 

(Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019)

[6] https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavirus/

[7] https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/05/science.aba9757 (about the effect of travel restrictions)

[8] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00676-3 (Coronavirus in the US)

[9] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w (WHO declares Covid-19 pandemic)

[10] Data analysis for deaths in Hubei (thanks to Federico Ricci Tersenghi)

https://www.facebook.com/groups/PhysicistsAgainstSARSCoV2/permalink/816604535498141/

Disclaimer: the views expressed in this letter are our own and do not necessarily represent those of our respective institutions. We are signing in a personal, and not official, capacity

*

Matteo Fago (Publisher, Rome, Italy)

Enrico Bucci (Temple University)

Enzo Marinari (Università di Roma “La Sapienza”, Italy)

Richard D. Gill (Emeritus, Leiden University, The Netherlands)

 

Simone Ammazzalorso (Università degli studi di Torino, Italy)

Giuliano Antoniciello (Università di Padova)

Vincenzo Antonuccio (INAF, Italy)

Andrea D’Aquino

Peter Kruger (Venture Capitalist, CEO eZecute, Italy)

Roberto Aguilar (ETH Zurich, Costa Rica)

Stefano D’Aronco (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Lucia Ballerini (University of Edinburgh, UK) 

Corinne Bedussa

Dario Bercioux (DIPC, Spain)

Sandro Calmanti (ENEA, Italy)

Giulia Cereda (Leiden University, The Netherlands)

Benedetta Cerruti (Swiss Re, Italy)

Salvatore Cielo (Leibniz Supercomputing Centre, Garching b. Munich, Germany)

Cecilia Clementi (FU Berlin, Germany)

Antonella Cocozziello (Italy)

Andrea Cossettini (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Filippo Costa (Università di Pisa, Italy)

Martina Danese (Empa, Switzerland)

Leonard Deuschle (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Qian Ding (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Sara Fanti UWE University of the West of England, Bristol, UK)

Sara Fiore (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Vincenzo Fiorentini (Università di Cagliari, Italy)

Jonathan Fiorentino (Helmholtz Zentrum München, Germany)

Marco Frigerio (University of Milan)

Guido Gandus(Empa, Switzerland)

Michele Ginolfi (University of Geneva)

Stefano Giorgi

Giulia Gosta (Università degli studi di Milano, Italy)

Alessandro Guareschi (University of Dundee, UK)

Maria Luisa Guerriero (AstraZeneca R&D, Cambridge, UK)

Brynmor Haskell (Nicolaus Copernicus Astronomical Center, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland)

Emilia La Nave (CNR, Italy)

Shaohua Li (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Marco Tullio Liuzza (University of Catanzaro, Catanzaro, Italy)

Ilaria Maccari (KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden)

Onofrio M. Maragò (CNR, Messina, Italy)

Maria Concetta Mastropieri (Liceo Scientifico Galileo  Galilei- Perugia- Italy)

Javier Roca Maza (Università degli Studi di Milano, Italy)

Michele Michelotto (INFN, Padova, Italy)

Valeria Montis (MIUR, Italia)

Alessia Nota (University of Bonn, Germany)

Elisabetta Ocello (University of Udine, Italy)

Carlotta Olivero (Cardiff University, UK)

Floria Ottonello Briano (PhD, Italy)

Davide Pagani (DESY, Hamburg, Germany)

Matteo Paganoni (Shell International (former Oxford University))

Giulia Panegrossi (CNR, Italy)

Daniele Passerone (Empa, Switzerland)

Chiara Pavan (University of Melbourne – Frey Institute, Australia)

Laura Pentericci (INAF, Italy)

Claudio Perini (ANSYS, Italy)

Marcello Petita (ENEA, EURAC)

Paola Pietrandrea (Université de Lille, France)

Leonardo Platania (Institut de Biologia Evolutiva (CSIC-UPF) , Spain)

Giulia Da Poian (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Elena Pulvirenti (University of Bonn, Germany)

Andrea Rapisarda (Università di Catania)

Tommaso Rollo (ThunderNIL, Italy)

  1. Marco Saitta (Sorbonne Université, Paris, France)

Renata Sarno (PhD)

Serena Savoca (University of Messina, Italy)

Gaetano Scebba (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Nathan Shammah (RIKEN, Wako, Japan)

Riccardo Spezia (Sorbonne Université, Paris, France)

Lorenzo Stievano (Université de Montpellier, France)

Simone Sturniolo (STFC, United Kingdom)

Alessandra Tamaro (Amsterdam University medical center, The Netherlands)

Luca Tortorelli (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

David Vagni  (Itl. Nt. Res. Council, CNR Messina)

Angelo Valli (TU Vienna, Austria)

Giulia Venditti (Department of physics, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy)

Sharon Watson (PharMD)

Xin Wen (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Jia Zhang (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)

Giulia Gulino (KU Leuven)

Gian Paolo Imponente (Federico II, Naples)

Alfio Torrisi (Nuclear Physics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Řež (Czech Republic) )

José Lorenzana (Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi – CNR, Rome, Italy)

Carlo Ungarelli  (Istituto di Istruzione Superiore “Marconi-Galletti-Einaudi”, Domodossola)

Angelo Maggi (La Sapienza University)

Giulia Ventagli

Simona Di Mauro (Rome Italy)

Antonio Giovanni Bruno (University of Leicester)

Athanasia Nikolaou

Sara Romanò (University of Turin)

Francesco Taddia

David Barney (CERN)

Mattia Udina (Sapienza University of Rome)

Filippo anzuini (University of Melbourne)

Roberto Fino (TUM)

Dimitris Dimopoulos (National Technological University Athens)

Davide Guerra (Università di Roma “La Sapienza”, Italy)

Roberto Carlin (University of Padova and CERN, Geneva)

Marco Antoniotti (Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca)

Martina Patane

Cinzia Perrino (C.N.R. Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research)

Marika Vargiu

donatella lucchesi

Diego Durante (Università di Roma “La Sapienza”, Italy (where I studied))

Nakia Carlevaro (ENEA, C.R. Frascati)

Adriana Pietrodangelo (Natio al Research Council of Italy – Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research)

Giovanni Limatola (Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca)

Lucie Delemotte (KTH)

Stefania gargano (Bisogna fermare tutto subito)

Filippo Andrei (University of Trento )

Riccardo Falsini

Diana Nayeli Monsberger (SciLifeLabs)

Mark Abraham (KTH)

Linnea Axelsson (Stockholm university, Science for Life Laboratory)

Andrea Locarno (Fondazione Istituto Italiano di tecnologia)

Matteo Vietri Rudan (King’s College London)

Michele Pellegrino (KTH Royal Institute of Technology)

Giuseppe DI MOLFETTA (Aix-Marseille Université )

Giorgio Savona

Stefano Bianchi (Università degli Studi Roma Tre)

Alessandro Sciullo (University of Turin (Italy))

Ewa Monika Wilczynska

Mauro Dadina (Inaf)

Alessandra Fino (CNR, Rome, Italy)

Mia Tosi

Dr. Sergio Pérez Conesa (KTH (Sweden))

Paolo Brunori (University of Florence )

Augusto Maccari

Frane Lunić (University of Zagreb)

Michele Cascella (University of Oslo)

Florian Kreten (University of Bonn, Germany)

Michael Blanga-Gubbay (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium / UZH Zurich, Switzerland)

Luca Frediani (UiT, The Arctic University of Norway)

Alice Scavarda (Università di Torino)

Roberto Nesci (INAF/IAPS-Roma, Italy)

Saeda Marello (University of Bonn, Germany)

Michele Schiappoli (Allergy Unit & Asthma Center, University Hospital Verona)

Federico Nati (Department of Physics, University of Milano – Bicocca, Italy)

Nadine Rueegg,  (ETH, Zuerich, Switzerland)

 

Update Mar 13th 2020 10.44 AM CET

Paolo Parotto (Bergische Universität Wuppertal)

Ciro Balsamo (Politecnico di Torino)

Thomas Bondo Pedersen (University of Oslo, Norway)

Tommaso Russo (Czech Technical University in Prague, Czech Republic)

Nicola Poccia (Leibniz IFW-Dresden )

Luisa Andreis (Weierstrass Institute, Berlin, Germany)

Mikhail Usvyatsov (ETH Zurich)

Fabio Stefanini

Angelo Raffaele Fazio (Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

Matteo Vannini (NTNU Trondheim)

Edwin Langmann (KTH)

Marcella Brusa (Università di Bologna)

Pietro Marsico (ASL Città di Torino)

Enrico Greco (Aix-Marseille Université – Peking University)

Giuseppe  (University of Nottingham )

Enzo Caruso

sara keeley (admin)

Alessandro Battaglia (University of Leicester)

Dario Calvani (Leiden University – Leiden Institute of Chemistry)

Rubin Dasgupta (Leiden University)

Lovkush Agarwal (The University of Leicester)

Liesbeth (Leiden University)

Giuseppe De Nittis (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

 

Update Mar 13th 2020 3.50 PM CET

Davide Masoero (University of Lisbon)

Francisco Jimenez Forteza (Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics)

Gavin Lamb (University of Leicester)

Federico Nicastro

Athanasia Nikolaou

Barbara Bolognese (Universita’ di Roma Tre)

Anjali Pandit (Leiden University)

Simon Joyce (University of Leicester)

John Kennis  (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam )

Andrea Aspri (RICAM (Radon Institute for Computational and Applied Mathematics))

Giovanni Mongardi (Alma mater studiorum Università di Bologna)

Gabriella Pinzari (University of Padua)

Gabriele Maria Coli (Universiteit Utrecht)

Lorenzo Cupellini (Università di Pisa)

Davide bianchi (King’s college london)

Chiara Capecci 

Ivette Fuentes (University of Nottingham )

John Henry Godwin (PhD Candidate Swansea University)

Roberta Chiovoloni (Swansea University)

Luca Boarino (INRiM)

Uldis Zandovskis

Enrico Fatighenti (Loughborough University)

Lea Rems (KTH, SciLifeLab, Sweden)

Matthew Lane (King’s College London)

Serena Busatto (Utrecht University)

Francesco Benfenati (University of L’Aquila)

Enrico Ragusa (School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, UK)

Constanza Rojas-Molina (CY Cergy Paris University)

Elizabeth Gasparim (Universidad Católica del Norte, Chile)

Andrea Mari (Unitary Fund, USA.)

Susanne Pumpluen (University of Nottingham)

Matteo Cavaleri (Unicusano, Roma)

Yi Ding (Leiden University)

Bart van Oort (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Marco Pensalfini (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya)

Cecilia Mezzera (Champalimaud Centre for the Unknown, Lisbon (Portugal))

Francesco Gabriele (Sapienza University of Rome)

Martina Patanè  (Vrije Universiteit – Amsterdam )

Giulia De Rosi (UPC – Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya)

Cristina Alcacer (Champalimaud Foundation, Lisbon)

Simone Di Cataldo (University of Rome “La Sapienza”)

Piero Carninci (RIKEN Center for Integrative Medical Sciences)

Francesca Caprino (INDIRE National Institute for Documentation, Innovation and Educational Research)

Cristina Pecorilla (University of Pisa, Pisa)

Julie Greensmith (University of Nottingham)

Marta Falcicchio

Karen Strung (Institute of Mathematics, Czech Academy of Sciences)

Dario Schiavon

Amal Taarabt (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

Cassandra Hall (University of Leicester)

PASQUALE SCARAMOZZINO (SOAS University of London)

Riccardo Piombo (Univiersity of Rome La Sapienza)

Nadir Bonaccorso (Universidade de Èvora)

Harith Gurunarayanan

Sandro Mattarei (University of Lincoln, UK)

 

Update Mar 13th 2020 10.03 PM CET

Rita Pardini (Universita’ di Pisa)

D Banerjee (KCL)

Elena Mocanu (University of Twente)

MARCO CORGINI (Departamento de Matemáticas. Universidad de La Serena. Chile)

Elisa Postinghel (Loughborough University)

Sarah Reznikoff (Kansas State University)

Luciana Bonatto (Universidad de La Serena, Chile. )

Vania Lo Presti (UMC UTRECHT)

Cosimo Lupo (Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris)

Michele Curatolo (University of Washington)

Monica De Seta (Dipartimento di Scienze Università Roma Tre)

Giovanni Capellini (Università Roma Tre  e Leibniz-IHP )

Luca Persichetti (Science Department, Roma Tre University)

Francesca Colaiori (CNR – ISC Institute for Complex Systems)

Justino Gilberto Sánchez Cubillos  (Universidad de La Serena)

Luciana Di Gaspare (Roma Tre University, Italy)

Davide Cipullo (Uppsala University)

Lorenzo Ruffoni (Florida State University)

Marouane Assal (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

Christin Seifert (University of Twente, The Netherlands)

Bert Zwart (CWI Amsterdam and Eindhoven University of Technology)

Ivon Rocío Buitrago Piñeros  (Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia )

Maria Lopez Fernandez (Sapienza University of Rome)

Giulia Giordano (University of Trento)

José E. Chacón (Universidad de Extremadura)

 

Update Mar 14th 2020 6.27 PM CET

Rita Pardini (Universita’ di Pisa)

D Banerjee (KCL)

Elena Mocanu (University of Twente)

MARCO CORGINI (Departamento de Matemáticas. Universidad de La Serena. Chile)

Elisa Postinghel (Loughborough University)

Sarah Reznikoff (Kansas State University)

Luciana Bonatto (Universidad de La Serena, Chile. )

Vania Lo Presti (UMC UTRECHT)

Cosimo Lupo (Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris)

Michele Curatolo (University of Washington)

Monica De Seta (Dipartimento di Scienze Università Roma Tre)

Giovanni Capellini (Università Roma Tre  e Leibniz-IHP )

Luca Persichetti (Science Department, Roma Tre University)

Francesca Colaiori (CNR – ISC Institute for Complex Systems)

Justino Gilberto Sánchez Cubillos  (Universidad de La Serena)

Luciana Di Gaspare (Roma Tre University, Italy)

Davide Cipullo (Uppsala University)

Lorenzo Ruffoni (Florida State University)

Marouane Assal (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)

Christin Seifert (University of Twente, The Netherlands)

Bert Zwart (CWI Amsterdam and Eindhoven University of Technology)

Ivon Rocío Buitrago Piñeros  (Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia )

Maria Lopez Fernandez (Sapienza University of Rome)

Giulia Giordano (University of Trento)

José E. Chacón (Universidad de Extremadura)

Valeria Gentile

Michele Simoncelli (EPFL)

Lara Benfatto  (Sapienza University of Rome )

Michele Simoncelli (EPFL)

Pavel Bushev (FZ Jülich)

marta cerù (High School)

Michele De Leo

Monica Gerber (Universidad Diego Portales)

Gaia Aquino 

Gaia Aquino (University of Leicester )

Benedetta Veronesi  (University of Milan )

Hossam Aly (Centre de recherche astrophysique de Lyon CRAL, France)

Beatrice Bodega (Istituto Nazionale di Genetica Molecolare INGM)

Kelly Loraine Sowers

Giulia Perotti (University of Copenhagen )

Julia Venturini (International Space Science Institute,  Bern, Switzerland)

Riccardo Cazzoli (European Institute of oncology (Milan))

Marina Lusic (Heidelberg University Hospital)

Alessandra Vittorini Orgeas (The University Of Melbourne)

Maria Pilar Pujol Closa (ICFO – The Institute of Photonic Sciences)

Olga Shvetsova (KOREATECH)

Paola (Brunel university London)

Alonso SILVA ALLENDE (Safran Tech)

Héctor Moreno Barrera (Universidad de La Serena)

Giovanni Dipierro (Uni)

Stefania Gobessi (Gadeta BV (Utrecht, the Netherlands))

Patricio  Bertoglia (UCSC)

 

Update Mar 15th 2020 11.13 AM CET

Christos Ouzounis (Centre for Research & Technology Hellas)

Alexandre Minets (IST Austria)

Mattia Scardamaglia (University of Lund, MAX IV Laboratory – Sweden)

Chiara Scardoni (Cambridge, UK)

Til Birnstiel (LMU Munich)

Magda Khalile (Leibniz Universität Hannover)

Olga Soloveva (Goethe University Frankfurt)

Isabella Pagano (INAF)

Mario Arenas Navarrete (Universidad de La Serena)

Daniel Price (Monash University, Melbourne, Australia)

Francesca Magnolo (Ghent University)

Alessia

Francesca Bernardi (Florida State University)

Andrea Bisso (Istituto Europeo di Oncologia)

Jay Lu (MappingLab Ltd)

Marcello Seri (Bernoulli Institute, University of Groningen, NL)

Arthur Mitchell (TTASS Director  Health and Safety practitioner)

Marco Quinti

Marianna Nardino (CNR italy)

Tebala Domenico

Paolo Bellelli 

Flavio Iannelli (Universität Zürich )

Domenico Colombrino

Rossana Monzeglio

GIuseppe Minuto

Andrea Scrocca

Alfredo gallo

gionni giavoni

Chiara D’Orazio

Giovanni Peccati (Luxembourg University)

Caterina Ercolani (private company , Basel)

Antonella Sgarbossa (Nanoscience Institute, CNR, Pisa, Italy)

Rita Cesari (ISAC – CNR (Italy))

Lucia Petrivelli

Giacomo Pedretti (Politecnico di Milano)

Luca Rivoira (Dept. Chemistry, University of Torino, italy)

Giulio Poladas

Daniela Campia

Angela Carnevale (NUI Galway)

Luigi Falciola (Università degli studi di Milano)

Liliana Laura Guiomar de Oliveira

Massimo  Pietroni (Department of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, University of Parma)

Carlotta Ferracini

Katia longo (Università di Bari )

Crescenzio Francesco Minervini (University of Bari)

Antonietta Fara (INAF (Italy))

Maria Petrone

Francesco Paolo Contò (Queen Mary University of London)

Eleonora Pargoletti

Maria Gianfilippi 

Silvia Calzi (Università degli Studi di Milano)

Alberto Epifani (Italia)

Massimo Bernaschi (National Research Council of Italy)

Marzia De Lucia (University of Lausanne and Lausanne University Hospital)

Michael Romano (Università degli Studi di Padova, Italy)

Alessandro Roma

Marco Gastaldo (Isokinetic Medical Group)

Mauro Tamborin (Docente scuola superiore )

Emanuela Barbati

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Sara Mancino (ESO)

Giovanni Marco Pruna (Maynooth University)

Enrico Mossello (University of Florence)

Simone Sanvitti 

Benedetta Pargoletti

Laura Badano (Sincrotorne Trieste)

Emanuela 

Francesca Sylos Labini (IRCCS Fondazione Santa Lucia, Roma)

Castelletti Carlo

Antonella Spaterna 

Isabella Lamperti (European Southern Observatory)

Giorgia Cabianca

Michela Graziosi

Massimiliano Todisco (EURECOM, France)

Renato Silvio Mortera

Giulio Grossi (University of Florence)

Lapo Casetti (Dip. Fisica e astronomia, Università di Firenze, Italy)

Jelena Ban (Department of Biotechnology – University of Rijeka, Croatia)

Andreas Nautsch (EURECOM)

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Giuseppe Bellelli (University of Milano-Bicocca)

Stefano Minghini

Ahmedeo Shokry

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